Looks like I was close to spot-on. Australia wrapped up the Bangladesh tail, and chasing 307, it's Ponting and Gilchrist at the crease with 95 runs required on the last day. I suppose there's a chance they might finish it before lunch, especially if they don't lose any more wickets, but other than that, I couldn't have called it better. Perhaps I should seek out Pinky and John and place a few wagers.
Bangladesh certainly have an outside chance to pull it off from here - but I think they'll have to get rid of both Ponting and Gilchrist early on for that to become real.